Pentagon Preparing for Iran: Ann Scott Tyson of The Washington Post reports: “The nation’s top military officer said today that the Pentagon is planning for ‘potential military courses of action’ against Iran, criticizing what he called the Tehran government’s ‘increasingly lethal and malign influence’ in Iraq.”

Yes, Cheney and friends are running around growling at everyone. What else is new? Wake me up if there are troop movements to report on, because the US military would get its ass kicked if they bomb Iran now, with their forces spread all across the Middle East and no reasonable plan for keeping supply lines open.

Well, let’s do some research. There are now two carrier groups in the immediate theatre; Harry Trumen, previously there, and the Abraham Lincoln which recently arrived. But also two marine expeditionary groups, one of which was just located into the gulf (Tarawa, transferring from 5th fleet operations to 7th in the gulf) while the marines on the second one in the meditarean have been assigned for expected duty in afghanistan area (hmmm), a third carrier group maybe putting into port at Hong Kong (Kitty Hawk) which in theory is supposed to be decomissioned, but is actually on the way to where?, and a 4th (Nimitz) in the eastern pacific…double hmm, and the George Washington is out at sea also (in the southern atlantic)...

So let’s summarize, no major naval carrier group in port, two already on station, at least two within or under two weeks travel time to the gulf, and two of the three active marine expeditionary groups already in place…

An attack in late May seems plausible.

or new york or portland or seatle

once the Iran Revolutionary Force was declared terrorist BushCo. had all their legal hurdles taken care of.

Iran is target rich, it should be a really fun time for the U.S. armed forces.

(Hey Shaper, where the relateds, u got me in withdrawal!)

Russia is solidly behind Iran. Russia’s Gasprom is providing most of Europe’s natural gas. Once Russia starts it’s behind the doors arm twisting with Europe leaders, just watch where all that bellicose stance from the US will end up.

Wake me up if there are troop movements to report on, because the US military would get its ass kicked if they bomb Iran now, with their forces spread all across the Middle East and no reasonable plan for keeping supply lines open.

The risk of losing an army in the greater Middle East opens the door for the use of strategic heavy bombing of population centers and even tactical nuclear weapons.

Clinton’s recent comments about responding to a theoretical nuclear attack on Israel with a massive nuclear retaliation from the U.S. annihilating Iranian populations centers didn’t prompt much in the way of a public backlash.

The greatest danger of U.S. military action against Iran is a further destabilization in Pakistan, where nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them are already in the hands of an Islamic State.

Sometimes no Peace

U.S. carrier arrives off Iran coast

Video

it would be a fascinating game to see played out… IF it were only a game and one could simply replace the pieces on the board. goliath vs david.

who would look away? who would take sides? would the american people finally rise up and take their country back? would they shrug and flip the tv to DEAL OR NO DEAL?

while it may not cause so much public backlash within the US, i don’t think anyone can quantify the level of hatred that could be reached by the rest of the world, should they launch a cowardly missile attack.

with the US$ circling the toilet, just such an act would galvanize opposition in such a way that pure economics might lose its power to international disgust.

and the blowback would be endless.

while it may not cause so much public backlash within the US, i don’t think anyone can quantify the level of hatred that could be reached by the rest of the world, should they launch a cowardly missile attack.
with the US$ circling the toilet, just such an act would galvanize opposition in such a way that pure economics might lose its power to international disgust.
and the blowback would be endless.

I share this point of view.

Just the opposite, the US should try to restore active diplomacy with Iran.

If Russia’s Putin completes his plan to takeover Europe’s natural gas supplies then the whole point will be moot. Iran and Russia will get into a defence agreement and the US will get kicked out of the whole Middle-East.

and the blowback would be endless.

I disagree wholeheartedly.

The impact will be devastating, even more so if the timing is late fall or early winter.

We’ll see a partial global cascade effect, much like that feared for the millennium changeover.

Currently we are experiencing the impact of twin peaks globally, the latter the result of the former, “Peak Oil” and “Peak Food.”

The price of basic commodities is rising steadily and directly linked to the rising cost of crude oil. The decades old war on Iraq has brought us to “Peak Oil” prematurely as the output from Iraq has been relatively static since the invasion of Kuwait, with ebbs and flows according to the state of the war.

This has artificially raised the price of energy and inhibited agricultural investment in the developing and third worlds to bring on “Peak Food” in spite of the fact that it is possible to double food production from where it currently is with sufficient capitol investment.

War with Iran in any fashion will bring a sharp increase in the price of crude oil.

Warning shots resulted in a speculative price bubble last week. If the Iranians retaliate for attacks on their facilities with missile attacks on oil production or transportation facilities in the region with even limited success, or sabotage their own, the price of oil will remain high for the foreseeable future and availability will be limited.

Even an Iranian oil embargo in and of itself would be sufficient to cause supply disruptions and a sharp increase in price.

This will further exacerbate the rise in food and basic commodities and as the supply chain begins to shortenl creating a backlash in the developing and third worlds against their own governments, when both food and the ability to distribute food become scarce or non-existent.

This will cause the “cascade effect” in developing and third world societies and a breakdown in the social order. In the face of this insecurity, you’ll see a mass emigration of those with the means to do so from these regions and those without will be forced to remain in place without their elite and professional class to help them through and eventually recover from this crisis.

Blowback requires some level of organization and in the face of the ensuing chaos the ability to retaliate against U.S. interests will be minimized.

First world nations will be carefully trying to prevent this global catastrophe from becoming WWIII and their chief concern will be maintaining and controlling their own food and energy supplies.

The Russians are unlikely to be happy about the situation, but will profit by virtue of it, as energy exports are a chief source of revenue and the fact they remain a major broker and exporter of fossil fuels to Europe.

The Chinese on the other hand, who’ve made serious investments in the developing and third world, will suffer both from the loss of these investments and
from the higher energy prices and limited availability of crude oil for import.

This will drastically reduce their ability to market products for export, but the American consumer will likewise be squeezed out of the market for goods, by skyrocketing energy and food prices and retail sales of imported goods from China will see a precipitous decline.

This will serve to roll up the rise of China, starve much of the fastest growing populations of the developing and third worlds and likewise result in the downsizing and reordering of first world economies and populations.

The end result, when the dust eventually settles, will be the greater Middle East is squarely in the hands of the U.S. and its western allies, the Russians will have weathered the storm and likely profited from it, the Chinese will have been set back though they’ll eventually recover and the U.S. will come out even leaner and meaner and will have gained the ability to settle its global balance sheet through the selling of security to those fleeing elite and professionals from the developing and third worlds and the Middle Eastern oil resources it has since gained through conquest.

Sometimes no Peace

If the post above makes this sound minimally inconvenient, rather than the global catastrophe the likes of which have never been witnessed in the history of humankind, it is because it’s but a general outline of what the neo-cons hope to achieve. As bad as this will be, it could turn out much worse. Even if all should go as planned, even the home states of the victors shall never be the same.

Peace,

Resembling only one another, not their former selves.

Naomi Klein: China’s All-Seeing Eye