H16631
World's Oil Supply May Be Past Peak
Among the post-peak countries are the United States, which peaked at 9.6 mb/d in 1970, dropping to 5.1 mb/d in 2006; Venezuela, where output also peaked in 1970; and the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, which peaked in 1999 and 2000.
From what I understand, if the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia has peaked, which some say it has, then categorically, the world has peaked.
[Posted By ShiftShapers]Republished from People & Planet
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years.
After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.93 mb/d in 2006 and then declined very slghtly to 84.93 mb/d in 2007.
The combination of world production levelling out or starting to decline while demand continues to rise rapidly is putting strong upward pressure on prices. Over the past two years, oil prices have climbed from $50 to nearly $100 a barrel. If production growth continues to lag behind the increase in demand, how high will prices go?
Age of Oil
There are many ways of assessing the oil production prospect. One is to look at the relationship between oil discoveries and production, a technique pioneered by the legendary US geologist M. King Hubbert. Given the nature of oil production, Hubbert theorized that the time lag between the peaking of new discoveries and that of production was predictable. Noting that the discovery of new reserves in the United States peaked around 1930, he predicted in 1956 that US oil output would peak in 1970. He hit it right…
Posted by ShiftShapers
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I’m more than willing to believe that oil production is peaking because oil companies are colluding to artificially suppress production and therefore drive up prices. Price fixing iis the easiest way for companies to profit, and it becomes easier the fewer firms exist in a market. The oil market is extremely concentrated these days. Additionally, when you consider that there must be zero oversight from the Bush administration, it’s not hard to imagine a cartel fixing prices & produciton. That’s actually OPEC’s job, for example. As John D. Rockefeller, the first oil man famously said, “competition is a sin.” I guess that’s a “conspiracy theory” though and hence impossible.
At any rate, the fact that no major government is investing heavily in developing alternatives to gasoline cars is proof to me that this ‘crisis’ has more to do with corruption of government than with nature and accident.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the oil companies were behind the environmentalists who want to limit fossil fuels? Look at how DeBeers operates if you’d like to understand how it’s advantageous for firms with a monopoly on a commodity market to limit supply & therefore drive up prices.
You know, when discussing Peak Oil i can almost understand why Bush does what he does. He’s got an entire nation and it’s satelites to keep afloat, if Peak Oil is the end of Civ and the Resource Wars are bound to happen, it’s understandable why he would do underhanded things on behalf of his Civ. If i understand what’s going on accurately, there is no current substitue for what oil functionally allows us to do, no solar, no biofuels, not wind or water can take the place, the infrastructure isn’t set up for it. The problem is the foundation of this building of ours, and though nthere might be hope after a crash, there is no way to avoid one. that being said, it only makes sense that the leader of the world’s greatest oil consuming nation would do anything and everything to delay and postpone what will be a tragic and dark time. No it’s not cool to be invading and coercing people around the globe for access to resources, but is that any different than nation-states have always acted? how civ has always acted? how any group of people with their quality and way of life threatened have acted? In the end it might be delusional to pretend that Peak can be avoided or mitagted, but what else can he do? He’s only human and like the rest of us, he’s trapped in a peculiar pathology. Right now oil is feeding us and clothing us and transporting us and… we’ve grown so dependent on it, like a heroin addict, the withdrawl could kill us, maybe not us as in “the human species”, but us as in “the american people” and “western civilization”. Us refers to our children, our elderly, everyone we care about. Peak really would be the end of modern Civ, and the end of modern civ is truely TEOTWAWKI. Any normal irrational protective ethnocentric protective human being in a position of power and authority would behave in the same manner. that’s my opinion this morning at least.
At any rate, it never ceases to amaze me how this nation will spend millions on high-tech rail-guns which will never practically work but not invest anything in finding alternatives to gasoline cars.
That’s because there are no real alternatives that don’t also require oil and it’s derivatives and/or doesn’t cut into the food supply. not that can be implemented on a large scale in a reasonable amount of time at least, right?
Shane, but if Bush is a nationalistic imperialist, why aren’t we getting any Iraqi oil? I.e., why isn’t Bush loading up oil tankers with Iraqi oil, and sending them directly to America? Instead, he’s trying to give the oil to international corporations who will sell the oil to the international market… less total oil is being produced than if Saddam had simply been left in charge of Iraq. It seems that Bush’s actions have more to do with enriching private oil companies and keeping the price of oil high than it has to do with aiding his nation or his civilization.
I think it’s more plausible that cheap energy is actually a threat to the elites, and is something Bush & friends are trying to suppress. I mean, if transporation and electricity were cheaper, I would probably work less, travel more and have more time for activism… a triple threat to the power strucutre if other people would do the same thing. How much better to have a population that needs to work an extra hour every day just to afford to reach their corporate workplace? Why not enrich agribusiness with ethanol subsidies and subsequently drive up food & energy prices for your citizens? Why not try to convince them that there is no alternative to gasoline, that gasoline produces dangerous carbon and must be taxed? A population that has to toil all day just to get by is by definition easy to control. I always thought that’s what the “Left” was all about, demanding that the amount of toil required to live a decent life be decreased. A lot of people who consider themselves ‘leftists’ seem to be clamouring for the opposite… I mean the ‘we must grow our own food, not use electricity, pay taxes on carbon’ crowd. Growing your own food, not using modern ammenities available to the rich, and paying experts to solve imagined problems were all characteristics of a political system known as “feudalism.”
You’re probably right that there are no alternatives that could be implemented over night. But are we even trying? I just posted an article about how Israel, a wealthy & powerful nation by any definition, is scheduled to get 30 Billion US dollars over the next several years. Are we spending $30 to find & implement alternatives to gasoline? But then, if we did spend $30 billion to do that, wouldn’t that undermine the oil companies?
As someone who only commutes about 30 miles per day, I wouldn’t mind driving an air car:
There’s also a futuristic technology known as a train that might work well for many US cities.
How would an air-car hold up in a collision with one of those farm vehicles that are so popular these days?
China
Shanghai – Hangzhou: China has decided to extend the world’s first commercial Transrapid line between Pudong airport and the city of Shanghai initially by some 35 kilometers to Hong Qiao airport before the World Expo 2010 and then, in an additional phase, by 200 kilometers to the city of Hangzhou (Shanghai-Hangzhou Maglev Train), becoming the first inter-city Maglev rail line in commercial service in the world. The line will be an extension of the Shanghai airport Maglev line.
Talks with Germany and Transrapid Konsortium about the details of the construction contracts have started. On March 7, 2006, the Chinese Minister of Transportation was quoted by several Chinese and Western newspapers as saying the line was approved.
China also intends to build a factory which will mass-produce low-speed maglev trains for urban use. The location of the factory will be the Nanhui district. [11]
why isn’t Bush loading up oil tankers with Iraqi oil, and sending them directly to America?
Uh. Have you heard of the insurgency, the Oil Law and the union movement in the Iraqi oil industry?
It’s not a spigot. It’s a resistant population and a fragile infrastructure. Exxon aren’t keeping Iraqi oil off-line, the Iraqis are.
I think it’s more plausible that cheap energy is actually a threat to the elites, and is something Bush & friends are trying to suppress. I mean, if transporation and electricity were cheaper, I would probably work less, travel more and have more time for activism
Oil was extremely cheap in the 90s and yet U.S. workers were working harder and harder, and the elites were making out like bandits.
Bacchus-
agreed on several points. I’m not sure why I was feeling so generous this morning. In the end whether or not Climate Change and Peak Oil and Mass Animal Extinction and Viral Pandemics and International Terrorism are immediate threats or just spectres used to coerce further submission, our proper response as individuals should probably be the same: prepare. I thinks it’s time to start some family and communal gardens, homeschool/unschool/co-op education, and do what we can on a local level to create a self-suffecient and sustainable life with the expectation that the world as we know it might suddenly and inexplicably change. Not guaranteed to help, but when faced with the forces we oppose what real alternatives do we have? Of course that becomes more difficult as they implement further “security” measures, taxes, citizen tracking, and wither away at private property rights and individual liberties, so i feel we should remain politically active, but in this David and Goliath tale we should prepare for the worst. And i’m not trying to be a doomsdayer, but sometimes the sky really is falling…
In other words, my priority for now and until armeggedon is upon us (in whatever form at whatever time) will be me and mine, and i encourage other individuals, families and communities to do the same. In short time a vegetable garden and and a couple solar panels are going to be far more valuable than a hummer and a mcmansion.
And for godsake if you can make the sacrifices and homeschool, please do so. Having your 8 year old miles away at a government institution for the majority of the day(and the majority of their childhood) is not a smart idea. And there are better ways to spend $1,000.00 than an HD flat screen and a PS3. Please prepare.
I’m remembering the gas lines of the 70’s, the fights, the absolute inavailability of gas. We haven’t seen anything like that yet. I think gas is running out, but the prices are pure gouging. When we start seeing gas lines, that’s when we’ll know the end is near.
I’m remembering the gas lines of the 70’s, the fights, the absolute inavailability of gas. We haven’t seen anything like that yet. I think gas is running out, but the prices are pure gouging. When we start seeing gas lines, that’s when we’ll know the end is near.
Szamko, have you seen the gas prices? I;m not denying that Bush is stealing oil, I’m just asking who he’s giving it to. Not the united states, but to international corporations.